BOUNTY Q3 CAMPAIGN

Ontology-Driven Dashboard
Live — Telemetry Feed Active Week 6 of 13  |  Aug 11, 2026 Campaign Manager: J. Morales
Campaign ROAS
3.7x
▲ 0.8 from Week 1 (target 3.5x)
Spend to Date
$8.31M
46.2% of $18M budget
Total Impressions
176.4M
▲ 12% above pacing plan
Conversions (purchases)
142.8K
▲ 18% vs forecast
Market Share (Nielsen)
39.1%
+0.9 pts (target: +1.5 by Q3 end)
Days Remaining
50
Budget pacing: 97% (on track)
PROCESS STATE — Campaign Lifecycle Source: cpg_campaign_collaboration.bpmn — Pool 1 (P&G Campaign Management)
1
Campaign Kickoff
2
Customer Profiling
3
Channel Targeting
4
Agency Creative
5
Campaign Launch
6
Dashboard Monitor
7
Telemetry Receive
8
Attribution
9
Optimize (if needed)
↺
Loop / End Quarter
Monitoring loop iteration #6 — last optimization executed Aug 8 (Pinterest budget +25%)
Channel Performance — Real-Time Summary
Pool 2 telemetry: impressions, engagement, spend, ROAS by delivery channel
All Channels By Profile By Creative
Channel Status Impressions Engagement Spend Budget Used CPC / CPM ROAS Attribution Share
Connected TV
Hulu, Peacock, YouTube TV		 ● On Track 68.2M 74% completion
9.1M full views		 $3.42M
47.5% of $7.2M 		$18.40 CPM 3.4x
18% (awareness)
Social Media
Instagram, Facebook, Pinterest		 ▲ Outperforming 52.8M 2.4% rate
1.27M engagements		 $1.58M
43.9% of $3.6M 		$1.24 CPC 4.6x
24% (consideration)
Search
Google Ads		 ● On Track 14.6M 3.8% CTR
554K clicks		 $0.82M
45.6% of $1.8M 		$1.48 CPC 3.6x
32% (intent capture)
Retail Media
Amazon, Walmart, Kroger		 ⚠ Watch 34.1M 1.9% CTR
648K clicks		 $2.18M
48.4% of $4.5M — pacing hot 		$0.84 CPC 2.1x
21% (conversion)
Digital Coupons
Ibotta, Fetch, Retailer Apps		 ● On Track 6.7M 4.2% redemption
281K redeemed		 $0.31M
34.4% of $0.9M 		$1.10 / redeem 3.9x
5% (activation)
Ad Group Health — Profile × Channel
Each card is an ontology node: the intersection of Customer Profile, Channel, and Creative that the campaign operates on
Families on CTV
Family Household Buyer → Connected TV
● On Track
Impressions
58.4M
Completion
76%
Spend
$2.94M
ROAS
3.4x
↑ Increase frequency 3x→4x/week +$210K rev
Families on Social
Family Household Buyer → Instagram, Facebook
● On Track
Impressions
28.1M
Engagement
2.1%
Spend
$0.86M
ROAS
3.8x
🔄 Rotate: promote "Kitchen Mess 15s" +8% engagement
New Homeowners on Pinterest
New Homeowner → Pinterest (home org content)
▲ Outperforming
Impressions
12.3M
Engagement
3.8%
CPC
$0.72
ROAS
5.2x
↑ Increase budget +25% ($180K) +$180K rev
⊕ Expand to YouTube home content +$28K rev
Bulk Buyers on Amazon
Bulk Buyer → Amazon Ads
▼ Underperforming
Impressions
18.6M
CTR
1.2%
CPC
$0.84
ROAS
0.72x
⚠ Competitor store-brand promotion active — CPC 40% above target
↓ Reduce Amazon bid cap −15% Save $31K
→ Shift $400K → Walmart Connect Save $120K
⏸ Pause until competitor promo ends −$85K rev risk
Bulk Buyers on Walmart
Bulk Buyer → Walmart Connect
● On Track
Impressions
11.2M
CTR
2.8%
CPC
$0.52
ROAS
3.1x
↑ Absorb shifted Amazon budget Capacity: +$400K
All Profiles on Search
All profiles → Google Ads (intent capture)
● On Track
Impressions
14.6M
CTR
3.8%
CPC
$1.48
ROAS
3.6x
↓ Reduce generic bids −10%, keep branded Save $85K
Creative Performance
Ad creative effectiveness — which message resonates?
30s
VIDEO
"Kitchen Mess" 30s
CTV — Family Household Buyer
Completion
76%
Recall Lift
+14%
15s
VIDEO
"Kitchen Mess" 15s
Social — Family + New Homeowner
Engagement
2.8%
vs Avg
+1.8x
15s
VIDEO
"Absorbency Demo" 15s
Social — All profiles
Engagement
1.2%
vs Avg
0.6x
STATIC
IMG
"Coupon Display" Static
Retail Media — Bulk Buyer
CTR
1.9%
Redemption
4.2%
TEXT
AD
"2x More Absorbent" Search Copy
Google Ads — All profiles
CTR
3.8%
Conv Rate
6.2%
Ontology insight: "Kitchen Mess 15s" outperforms "Absorbency Demo" by 1.8x on social. The domain model connects this creative to the Family Buyer profile where mess-cleanup messaging resonates more than product-feature messaging.
Attribution — Channel Contribution
Multi-touch attribution weights (ontology-driven, not last-click)
Connected TV
Awareness
18%
Social Media
Consideration
24%
Search
Intent
32%
Retail Media
Conversion
21%
Digital Coupons
Activation
5%
Top Converting Journeys (Pool 3 — Consumer)
CTV → → Google → Amazon → Purchase
38% of conversions 4.1x ROAS
→ Google → Walmart → Purchase
22% of conversions 5.1x ROAS
CTV → CTV → Walmart → Purchase
15% of conversions 3.2x ROAS
Google → Amazon → Purchase
12% of conversions 2.4x ROAS
Ontology insight: If using last-click attribution, Amazon would appear to drive 62% of conversions. Multi-touch reveals CTV + Social do the awareness/consideration work — defunding them would collapse the pipeline within 2-3 weeks.
Forecast vs. Actual — Quarter Projection
Strategy execution trajectory — will we hit the Q3 objective?
Market Share
39.1%
Projected Q3 end: 39.8%
✓ Target: 39.7% (+1.5 pts)
ROAS
3.7x
Projected Q3 end: 3.6x
✓ Target: 3.5x
Total Conversions
142.8K
Projected Q3 end: 318K
✓ Pace: +18% vs plan
Budget Spend Rate
$8.31M
Projected: $17.8M of $18M
✓ Pacing: 97% (on track)
CTV Household Reach
12.3M
Projected: 22.1M HH
✓ 68% of target HH universe
Attributed Revenue
$30.7M
Projected: $64.2M
✓ $18M spend → $64.2M return
Projections use ontology-grounded trajectory model: current channel mix × historical decay curves × seasonal Q3 lift factor. Confidence interval: ±8% on revenue projection.
Strategy Mixer — Scenario Planning
Group/regroup: model alternative campaign configurations before committing
Current Strategy (as executing)
CTV 40% / Social 20% / Search 10% / Retail 25% / Coupons 5% — 3 profiles, 4 creatives active
Proj. ROAS: 3.6x
Proj. Share: 39.8%
Risk: Low
Scenario A: Double Down on Social
Shift 10% from CTV → Social (Pinterest expansion). Retire "Absorbency Demo." Increase New Homeowner targeting weight.
Proj. ROAS: 4.0x
Proj. Share: 39.6%
Risk: Medium (reduces awareness)
Scenario B: Retail Rescue + Search Push
Pause Amazon bulk buyer spend. Redirect $400K to Walmart Connect + branded search. Add "Mega Roll Value" creative for bulk segment.
Proj. ROAS: 3.9x
Proj. Share: 39.9%
Risk: Medium (loses Amazon presence)
Scenario C: Full Aggressive — Capture Market Share
Request $2M incremental budget. Increase CTV frequency to 5x/week. Expand Pinterest + YouTube for homeowners. Launch Costco-specific retail media flight.
Proj. ROAS: 3.3x
Proj. Share: 40.4%
Risk: High (diminishing returns)
Scenarios are computed from the ontology graph: each reallocation traverses Profile → Channel → Creative → Performance edges to project impact. Senior leadership can compare strategies before committing to tactical changes.
Optimization Log — Governed Actions (Step 9)
Each action is a tracked process instance with approval, monitoring window, and auto-revert gate
Date Action Rationale (from ontology) Approved By Status Measured Impact
Aug 8 Pinterest budget +25%
New Homeowner group		 CPC 40% below plan; engagement 3.8% vs 2.1% channel avg; home-org content context driving high conversion J. Morales ● Active — Day 3 +$62K attributed rev (early signal)
Aug 5 Retire "Absorbency Demo" creative
All social channels		 0.6x vs avg engagement; "Kitchen Mess" outperforms 1.8x on same audiences. Creative fatigue pattern detected. J. Morales ● Complete Social engagement +11% since rotation
Jul 28 Amazon bid cap −15%
Bulk Buyer group		 Competitor store-brand promo inflating auction prices; ROAS dropped to 0.72x. Walmart Connect offers same profile at lower CPC. J. Morales + VP Chen ⚠ Monitoring CPC down to $0.84 (was $0.97); ROAS recovering to 0.72x → 1.1x but still below target
Jul 21 CTV frequency 3x→4x/week
Family group — A/B test		 Awareness attribution steady at 18%; household reach plateau detected. Frequency increase to break through. J. Morales ● Complete Completion rate held at 76% (no fatigue); +$210K attributed revenue vs control
Jul 14 Generic search bid −10%
Keep branded terms at full bid		 Branded queries convert 3x better. Generic "paper towels" queries have lower intent and higher CPC. Shift budget to branded. J. Morales ● Complete Saved $85K; branded CTR up 0.4 pts; total search ROAS improved 3.2x → 3.6x
Source model: cpg_campaign_collaboration.bpmn — Pool 1 (campaign lifecycle), Pool 2 (channel delivery telemetry), Pool 3 (consumer journey paths)
Ontology nodes active: 1 Campaign · 3 Profiles · 5 Channels · 4 Creatives · 6 Ad Groups · 142.8K Journeys · 176.4M Impressions
Dashboard refresh: Telemetry stream — continuous  |  Attribution model — hourly  |  Nielsen share — weekly
✦
Campaign Advisor
Ontology-driven insights · Live
⚡ Right Now — Needs Attention
Action Required
Amazon Bulk Buyer ROAS is 0.72x — you're losing $0.28 per dollar spent. Competitor store-brand promo is still active. The bid cap reduction on Jul 28 helped (CPC dropped from $0.97 → $0.84) but hasn't restored profitability.
→ Review "Bulk Buyers on Amazon" ad group
Updated 12 min ago from Pool 2 telemetry
Opportunity
Pinterest New Homeowners is your best performer at 5.2x ROAS. The +25% budget increase from Aug 8 is already showing +$62K attributed revenue in 3 days. There's still headroom — Pinterest inventory for home-organization content isn't saturated yet.
→ View New Homeowners expansion scenario
Signal detected from attribution model (hourly)
Watch
Retail Media budget pacing at 48.4% — slightly hot for Week 6 of 13. At current rate, Retail Media will exhaust budget by Week 11, leaving 2 weeks uncovered. Consider pacing adjustment or budget reallocation.
→ See budget pacing forecast
Pacing model updated 2 hrs ago
📈 Trend Lines — Where We Are → Where We're Headed
Campaign ROAS
3.7x → 3.6x proj.
3.5x target NOW
Wk 1 (Jul 7) Wk 3 Wk 6 — NOW Wk 13 (Sep 30)
Market Share (Nielsen Weekly)
39.1% → 39.8% proj.
39.7% target NOW
38.2% start Wk 3 39.1% — NOW 39.8% proj.
Social Media ROAS
4.6x ▲ accelerating
Pinterest +25% (Aug 8)
3.1x start 4.6x — NOW (accelerating after Pinterest boost)
Amazon Bulk Buyer CPC
$0.84 ▼ improving but above $0.60 target
$0.60 target Competitor promo starts Bid cap −15% If promo ends mid-Aug
$0.62 (ok) $0.97 peak $0.84 — NOW $0.68 proj.
Budget Spend — Cumulative
$8.31M of $18M (46.2%)
$18M plan $17.8M
$0 (Jul 1) $8.31M — NOW $17.8M proj.
🔍 Patterns Detected
Trend
CTV → Social → Search → Purchase is your dominant conversion pathway (38% of conversions, 4.1x ROAS). This pattern has been strengthening week over week — it was 31% of conversions in Week 2. The ontology shows these three channels are playing distinct funnel roles: awareness → consideration → intent.
Journey analysis — 142.8K completed journeys
Trend
"Kitchen Mess" creative is pulling away. Engagement gap vs. "Absorbency Demo" has widened from 1.4x (Week 2) → 1.8x (Week 6). Mess-cleanup messaging resonates with Family Buyer profile 2x more than product-feature messaging. The creative rotation on Aug 5 was the right call.
Creative performance model — daily
Context
Market share gains are tracking linearly. At +0.9 pts through Week 6, you need +0.6 pts in the remaining 7 weeks to hit the 1.5-pt target. Historical Q3 data shows a late-August acceleration in CPG purchases (back-to-school stocking), which should provide a tailwind.
Nielsen panel data — weekly refresh (last: Aug 8)
Watch
CTV completion rate has been flat at 74-76% for 3 weeks. This may indicate the audience has absorbed the message. If completion drops below 70%, consider creative refresh — the ontology suggests a seasonal "back-to-school mess" variant could re-engage the Family Buyer profile in September.
CTV telemetry — Pool 2 trend analysis
📋 Advisor Playbook — Course Corrections
🚨
Act This Week
Amazon Bulk Buyer: Stop the Bleed
ROAS 0.72x — losing $0.28/dollar. Competitor promo has been live 18 days.
▶
The Situation
Since July 21, a competitor store-brand promo on Amazon drove your Bulk Buyer CPC from $0.62 → $0.97 — a 56% spike. The bid cap cut on July 28 helped (now $0.84), but you're in a price-anchored bidding war you cannot win. Amazon's auction dynamics favor the lower-priced competitor in this keyword cluster. The ontology shows this segment's primary purchase driver is value per unit, not brand loyalty — which means the competitor's price signal is overriding your creative narrative entirely.
What the Data Tells the Ontology
Walmart Bulk Buyer (same profile, different retailer) is running at 3.1x ROAS this week with no competitor interference. The person is the same — the environment is different. This is a channel problem, not a profile problem.
Recommended Actions
  1. Cap Amazon Bulk Buyer daily spend at $12K/day (from $18K/day), effective Monday. This stops the $6K/day excess burn while you hold ground on branded terms only.
  2. Redirect the freed $400K to Walmart Connect, Bulk Buyer segment. Walmart's algorithm is less contested — your CPC there is $0.58, well below the $0.60 target.
  3. Test a "Save more per roll, buy the 8-pack" value message at Walmart. This speaks directly to the Bulk Buyer's cost-per-unit decision frame, which your ontology says is ~2.3x more motivating than brand narrative for this profile.
  4. Set a re-escalation rule: if Walmart Bulk Buyer ROAS exceeds 2.5x for 7 consecutive days, expand the allocation to Sam's Club Connect at equal weight.
  5. Hold Amazon at maintenance spend ($12K/day) and revisit after August 21 — historical data suggests competitor Q3 promos typically run 4 weeks. If CPC drops below $0.70, gradually restore spend.
Expected Impact
2.4x → 2.6x Bulk Buyer blended ROAS (from current 1.4x)
+$280K Incremental attributed revenue over remaining flight
−$18K/week Cost of waiting vs. acting now
Week 8–9 When Walmart results will confirm the shift is working
Draft Memo — To: Media Buyer
TO: Media Buyer — Retail Channel RE: Amazon Bulk Buyer — Budget Reallocation, Week 7 Effective Monday Aug 12: • Reduce Amazon Bulk Buyer daily cap from $18K → $12K/day • Reallocate $400K from Amazon to Walmart Connect (Bulk Buyer audience, same targeting parameters) • Activate "Save more per roll — buy the 8-pack" creative variant at Walmart; suppress Absorbency Demo unit • Set alert: if Amazon Bulk CPC drops below $0.70 for 5+ consecutive days, escalate back to $15K/day Rationale: Competitor store-brand promo has sustained high auction pressure since July 21. Walmart Connect shows same profile at 3.1x ROAS — environment, not audience, is the issue. Review checkpoint: August 21 call — compare Walmart ROAS vs. Amazon signal. — Campaign Advisor / August 10
🚀
Double Down — Window Closing
Pinterest New Homeowner: Scale Before Week 9
5.1x ROAS, unsaturated inventory, but 90-day brand-formation window ends in 3 weeks.
▶
The Situation
Your New Homeowner profile is converting at 5.1x ROAS on Pinterest — the best performer in the portfolio. The +25% budget increase on August 8 generated $62K in incremental attributed revenue in just 3 days. This isn't an anomaly — it reflects a structural truth in your ontology: new homeowners are in a brand formation window. They haven't established product habits yet. They're actively searching for home essentials on Pinterest. The inventory in the home-organization content category is not yet saturated at your targeting parameters.
Why the Window Is Closing
The average new homeowner's "brand discovery phase" is approximately 90 days post-close. Your audience was targeted at the 45-90 day mark. You have roughly 3 weeks before this cohort ages out of the discovery window and begins defaulting to whatever brand they've already purchased once. After that, CPL increases significantly (re-acquisition vs. acquisition-while-open).
Recommended Actions
  1. Increase Pinterest New Homeowner budget by an additional +15% (on top of the +25% active now), targeting the home-organization content cluster. At 5.1x ROAS, this spend justifiably displaces lower-performing allocations.
  2. Add a "New Home Essentials" pin format targeting movers within 60 days — this is Pinterest's move-triggered audience segment. Source: use the "Life Events: Moving" targeting layer. Expected: 20-30% lift in CTR vs. generic homeowner targeting.
  3. Build a 3-step retargeting sequence: (a) Pinterest pin → (b) Instagram Story 48 hours later → (c) Coupon offer email/Ibotta push at Day 5. This multi-touch path has a 68% higher conversion rate than single-touch Pinterest for CPG.
  4. Request a lookalike audience expansion from Pinterest CX team — model from the converters in this segment (New Homeowner, purchased within 21 days of ad exposure). This should yield a 2-3x larger targetable audience pool.
Expected Impact
+$180K Incremental attributed revenue at 5.1x ROAS
8% → 11% New Homeowner share of total conversions
~$95K lost Revenue opportunity cost of not scaling during window
Week 9 cap Diminishing returns expected as audience pool saturates
Draft Memo — To: Social Media Buyer
TO: Social Media Buyer — Pinterest/Instagram RE: New Homeowner Scale-Up, Weeks 7–9 Three actions needed by end of week: 1. Pinterest New Homeowner budget: increase by additional +15% on top of current allocation → Target: home-organization content cluster, pin and video formats → Add "Life Events: Moving" targeting layer (movers within 60 days) 2. Activate retargeting sequence: → Pinterest view → Instagram Story (48hr delay) → Ibotta/Fetch coupon offer (Day 5) → This should increase multi-touch conversion rate by ~68% vs. single-touch 3. Contact Pinterest CX to request lookalike expansion: → Seed audience: converters from New Homeowner segment (purchased within 21 days) → Ask for 2-3x audience size estimate before approving DEADLINE: Actions 1 and 2 by August 12. Action 3 by August 14. The 90-day brand window for this cohort closes around August 31. — Campaign Advisor / August 10
⏱️
Preventive — Start Production Now
CTV Creative: Get Ahead of Fatigue
74% completion flat for 3 weeks. ~3.8 avg frequency. The plateau always precedes the drop.
▶
The Situation
"Kitchen Mess 30s" is still delivering — 74% completion, 3.4x ROAS, solid. But the completion rate has been flat at 74-76% for exactly 3 weeks. Your Family Buyer CTV audience (~18M unique households) has seen this ad an average of 3.8 times. The plateau is the early warning sign — ad fatigue in CTV typically begins manifesting in completion rate drops 3-4 weeks after frequency crosses 3.5x average. By that math, the drop window is September 8–22. You're in the "calm before" right now.
Why Act Now (Not in September)
CTV production + network clearance typically takes 3–4 weeks from brief to air. If you start creative production this week, you can have a fresh variant ready to rotate on September 1 — exactly when the fatigue signal is projected to appear. Waiting until the drop happens means 2–3 weeks of degraded performance before the fix is live.
Recommended Actions
  1. Brief the creative team this week on a "Back-to-School Mess" CTV variant (30s cut). The narrative arc should maintain the Kitchen Mess situational frame (family, cleanup, relief) but with a September-relevant moment: school lunches, backpack spills, etc. Same emotional register — new scene.
  2. Target a September 1 air date for the new variant. Run new variant at 70% weight, keep Kitchen Mess 30s at 30% — don't retire it, the engaged minority still responds.
  3. Immediately set a CTV frequency cap at 4 impressions/household/week (from uncapped). This extends the shelf life of the current creative by ~2 weeks and gives you buffer if production runs late.
  4. The Kitchen Mess 15s Social cut has lower frequency and a different audience context — it can run longer without fatigue concerns. Do not rotate Social creative on the same schedule as CTV.
  5. Consider producing a 6s bumper variant for YouTube TV with the "mess → relief" payoff compressed — these have much longer fatigue lifespans and cost a fraction to produce.
Expected Impact
≥ 70% Completion rate maintained through September
3.4x → 3.5x ROAS recovery from fresh creative lift
~$280K lost Revenue impact if fatigue hits and creative isn't ready
3–4 weeks Production lead time — start brief this week
Draft Brief — To: Creative Team
TO: Creative Director — Bounty Q3 RE: CTV Refresh Brief — September Flight URGENT: Brief needed by August 14 to hit September 1 air date. UNIT: "Back-to-School Mess" — 30s CTV + 6s Bumper BRAND: Bounty Paper Towels STRATEGIC CONTEXT: "Kitchen Mess 30s" has been in-market 6 weeks at 3.8x avg frequency. Completion rate plateauing — fatigue signal expected in 3–4 weeks. Need fresh variant on air by Sept 1 before drop impacts ROAS. CREATIVE DIRECTION: • Same emotional frame as "Kitchen Mess" — family, chaos, relief, Bounty saves the moment • New September scene: back-to-school setting (morning rush, school lunch prep, backpack spill) • Hero moment: parent restores calm with Bounty — "handles whatever September throws at you" • Maintain same color palette, pacing, and VO tone as current spot (brand continuity) • MUST include: product close-up with "2x more absorbent" claim super (legal requirement) DELIVERABLES: • 30s CTV master • 6s bumper cut (YouTube TV / pre-roll) • 15s social cut (will be scheduled separately per social buyer) APPROVALS NEEDED BY: August 28 (allows 3 days for network clearance) — Campaign Advisor / August 10
Advisor analysis refreshed continuously from Pool 2 telemetry stream
Attribution model: hourly · Nielsen share: weekly · Forecast: 6-hour cadence